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Bitcoin 4 year cycle
The Bitcoin 4 year cycle is the price pattern between halvings, which arrive about every 4 years: so far each cycle put in its top close 372 to 547 days after a halving, then fell to a low. Today is day 934 of the current cycle. The chart is history, not a forecast and not advice.
| Cycle | Halving | Price at halving | Top close | Top | Multiple | Top band | Low close | From top |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | November 28, 2012 | $12.50 | December 5, 2013 (day 372) | $1,137 | 90.95x | 9 | January 15, 2015 (day 778) | -84.9% |
| 2 | July 9, 2016 | $663 | December 17, 2017 (day 526) | $19,280 | 29.08x | 8 | December 16, 2018 (day 890) | -83.2% |
| 3 | May 11, 2020 | $8,754 | November 9, 2021 (day 547) | $67,562 | 7.72x | 7 | November 22, 2022 (day 925) | -76.7% |
| 4 | April 20, 2024 | $63,824 | October 7, 2025 (day 535) | $124,777 | 1.96x | 5 | July 1, 2026 (day 802) | -53.1% |
What Is the Bitcoin 4 Year Cycle
The Bitcoin 4 year cycle is the rhythm bitcoin's price has followed between halvings, the events every 210,000 blocks that cut the reward for mining a block in half. Bitcoin Core's own code notes that this happens approximately every 4 years.1
The chart on this page starts each cycle at its halving and plots price as a multiple of the halving-day close, so the four cycles sit on top of each other. Day 0 is the halving. Today's spot on the current line is marked.
Bitcoin Cycle Tops and Lows by Halving
Bitcoin cycle tops came 372 to 547 days after each halving, and cycle lows came 778 to 925 days after it in the three finished cycles. Here a top is the highest daily close within 1,000 days after a halving, and the low is the lowest close after that top, both from the Blockchain.com daily price series.
Halving dates come from the block times on mempool.space.3 The halving countdown shows how many blocks remain until the next one.
| Halving | Top close | Days to top | Low close | Days to low | Drop |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 28, 2012 | $1,136.9 | 372 | $172.0 | 778 | 84.9% |
| July 9, 2016 | $19,279.9 | 526 | $3,231.91 | 890 | 83.2% |
| May 11, 2020 | $67,562.17 | 547 | $15,759.61 | 925 | 76.7% |
| April 20, 2024 | $124,776.68 (so far) | 535 | $58,534.28 (so far) | 802 | 53.1% (so far) |
Where the Current Bitcoin Cycle Stands
The current Bitcoin cycle stands at day 934 since the April 20, 2024 halving, and the price of $74,317 sits -40.4% against this cycle's top close.
That top so far is $124,776.68 on October 7, 2025, day 535. The lowest close since then is $58,534.28 on July 1, 2026, day 802, which was 53.1% under the top. Both are marked so far because the 1,000-day window for the top and the run-up to the next halving have not finished.
Why Each Cycle Has Been Smaller
Each cycle has been smaller than the last when measured from the halving price: the top close was 90.95 times the halving-day price in the first cycle, then 29.08, 7.72 and, so far, 1.96 times.
A larger starting price needs far more new money to multiply by the same amount. The Bitcoin rainbow chart shows the same thing another way: on our fit, the four tops closed in bands 9, 8, 7 and 5, each one lower against the long-term line.
How Deep Bitcoin Cycle Drawdowns Went
Bitcoin cycle drawdowns went deep: from top close to cycle low, the price fell 84.9%, 83.2% and 76.7% in the three finished cycles. The current cycle's deepest close so far sat 53.1% under its top.
A drawdown is the fall from a peak to the lowest point after it. Every cycle low so far closed in band 4 of our rainbow fit, Just below the line. That is four data points on one fit, and it describes the past only.
Is the 4 Year Cycle a Forecast
The 4 year cycle is not a forecast: it describes three finished cycles and one open one, and four data points cannot prove a rule. The days to the top ranged from 372 to 547, which is a spread of about six months.
Halvings are fixed in the code, but price is set by buyers and sellers, so nothing guarantees the next cycle rhymes with the last. Use the chart to see the history clearly. For month-by-month history, see Bitcoin monthly returns.
Questions People Ask About Bitcoin 4 year cycle
These are the questions people ask next about Bitcoin 4 year cycle.
When does the Bitcoin cycle peak?
The Bitcoin cycle peak, taken as the highest daily close within 1,000 days of a halving, came 372, 526, 547 and 535 days after the four halvings so far. The current cycle's peak so far was $124,776.68 on October 7, 2025.
How long is a Bitcoin cycle?
How long a Bitcoin cycle lasts is set by the gap between halvings: 1,319, 1,402 and 1,440 days for the three finished cycles. Halvings come every 210,000 blocks, so the exact length depends on how fast blocks arrive.
What day of the cycle is it today?
Today is day 934 of the current cycle, counted from the halving at block 840,000 on April 20, 2024. The cycle ends at the next halving, block 1,050,000, which the halving countdown tracks.
Does the halving cause the cycle?
The halving may or may not cause the cycle; the data shows timing, not cause. Tops came 372 to 547 days after each halving, but price responds to much more than the block reward, and four cycles are too few to separate one cause from the rest.
Sources
Every number on this page comes from these sources, checked November 10, 2026.